Seriously Risky Business Newsletter
July 03, 2025
Why Iran Is a Scaredy Cat Cyber Chicken
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Policy & Intelligence
US authorities and security firms have spent the last few weeks pumping out non-stop warnings about an increased threat of Iranian cyber attacks targeting US critical infrastructure. At the time of writing these attacks have not materialised. Given the US has already dropped very real bombs, we think Iran has good reason to avoid escalatory cyber attacks.
Disruptive cyber attacks can be useful because they cause harm and they are also hard to stop or deter. Iranian groups have carried out these kinds of irritating attacks in the past. But there's a caveat. These types of attacks are useful and worthwhile before bickering between states escalates to armed conflict.
Back in December 2023, for example, an Iran-linked group calling itself the Cyber Av3ngers disrupted water facilities across the US by hacking Israeli-made Unitronics programmable logic controllers. These devices are important because they are used to control and monitor operations at water processing plants. Still, in this case, the incidents were annoying rather than destructive or disastrous.